Wednesday, November 7, 2012

A MUST READ - Why Mitt Romney Lost & The False Argument From The Left

No sooner had the race been called and the liberal media began to trumpet the new mantra from the left as to why Mitt Romney fell short of defeating Barack Obama yesterday.

Their version of reality is that it is all about the demographics. They say the country is "changing", the ethnic make-up is rapidly changing, and the party of the "old white guy" is not keeping up. The Republican Party has not adjusted its message to attract the increasing minority groups in America. They are after all at war with women, want to deport all illegal aliens and would prefer that all blacks were - in the oh so eloquent words of Joe Biden - "back in chains."

If you read my short eBook titled "The Insanity of Liberalism" this will sound familiar, and you will immediately recognize it for what it is - them pushing a false argument to further their acquisition of power. They are on offense, as always, and pushing the false argument to further diminish the power of the Republican Party and to marginalize Conservatism. They are not offering thoughtful analysis, they are not accurately describing events that have occurred, they are pushing a false argument to further their power and diminish their enemy's power (you and me).

Now, let's look at some numbers and you will quickly see why Mitt Romney lost and why it has absolutely nothing to do with demographics.

I will try to make this as simple as possible.In 2008 a fairly weak candidate in John McCain managed to get just under 60 million Americans to the voting booths. That number, as of about 1:00pm central time today for Mitt Romney was only 57,475,000 (rounding). A full 2,500,000 less.

That fact in and of itself should speak volumes to those of us on the losing side. How is it possible that after 4 years of being pounded by Obama, the emergence of the Tea Party, the 2010 mid-term shellacking the Democrats took and all of the build up to and intensity of the political conversation the last couple years, that 2.5 million fewer Americans show up to vote against the Democrats? I would have expected several million more to turn out yesterday than in 2008. I will offer my opinion below, but first let's look at just how close this election really was, and why the demopgraphic argument is false.

I looked at 4 swing states, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, that if won by Romney would have given him 273 electoral votes, enough to become the 45th President of the United States. Let's look at the vote counts:

Wisconsin:

Total votes for Obama yesterday                   1,060,796
Scott Walker Recall election vote                  1,334,450
Margin of victory with Walker totals              + 273,654

Total votes for Romney yesterday                     972,294
Deficit of Romney votes to Walker                -  362,156

10 electoral votes

Mitt Romney fell short of the Wisconsin recall election vote total by over 350,000. A fraction of those voters could have easily swung the state over to Romney. Where were they yesterday? Demographics? I think not.

Ohio:
Total votes for Obama yesterday                 2,665,144
Total votes for McCain in 2008                   2,677,820
Margin of victory with McCain totals           +   12,676

Total votes for Romney yesterday                2,564,446
Deficit of Romney votes to McCain              - 113,374

20 electoral votes

If Romney gets McCain totals, he wins, instead he comes short of even McCain totals by 113,374. Where were those voters yesterday? Demographics? I think not.

Virginia:
Total votes for Obama yesterday              1,661,703
Total votes for McCain in 2008                1,725,005
Margin of victory with McCain totals        +   63,302

Total votes for Romney yesterday            1,617,922
Deficit of Romney votes to McCain          - 107,083

13 electoral votes

If Romney gets McCain totals, he wins easily, instead he comes short of even McCain totals by 107,083. Where were those voters yesterday? Demographics? I think not.

Florida:
Total votes for Obama yesterday             4,062,897
Total votes for McCain in 2008               4,046,219
Additional needed to win in 2012             -   16,678

Total votes for Romney yesterday            3,997,497
Deficit of Romney votes to McCain         -   48,272

27 electoral votes

Romney only needed to outperform McCain's efforts of 2008 by 16,678 as of this afternoon to beat Obama in Florida. Where were those additional voters needed yesterday? Demographics? I think not.

Total electoral votes of 4 states                                                 70
Total electoral votes won by Romney                                      203
Total electoral votes with 16,678 more votes than 2008          273




Let's summarize, John McCain's performance from 2008 would have won him Ohio and Virginia, and come up less than 17,000 votes short in Florida. At that point, anything can happen. Scott Walker's performance would have won Wisconsin for Romney by over several hundred thousand! The votes are there folks, the Republican Party just needs to find the right person to get them to the voting booth on election day. That didn't happen yesterday, not demographics.

So, why did Mitt Romney lose to John McCain by over 2.5 million votes, and more specifically why did his totals under-perform Governor Walker's in Wisconsin by over 1/3 from less than a year ago?

Do I need to even write it out? The Tea Party elevated Governor Scott Walker to an easy victory in his Wisconsin recall election and it was Conservatives that turned out for Sarah Palin in 2008 that garnered McCain the level of support that easily out-performed Mitt Romney's 2012 efforts.

There is no other explanation. I know, I lived it. As the 2012 election cycle began revving up nearly two years ago I swore I would not vote for another liberal RINO after holding my nose to vote for McCain in 2008. Recognizing the importance of removing Obama from office I eventually came around and got on board with the "anybody but Obama" idea, and enthusiastically put all of my support behind Mitt Romney.

However, at the end of the day, as we have witnessed in 2008 and now in 2012, liberal light RINO's are a losing ticket, no matter how much lipstick you put on it. Not even Conservative favorite Sarah Palin could salvage John McCain's failed campaign, but because of her John McCain by far out-performed Mitt Romney's performance of yesterday.

We have 4 years to continue our efforts to reform the Republican Party and find true Conservatives that can deliver the message needed to turn out those 2.5 million Americans that stayed home yesterday, and recruit even more with our winning message. Yesterday, 2008 Republican voter levels, and an additional 16,678 in Florida, would have won Mitt Romney the Presidency.

Do not listen to the pundits bloviating about the demographics, happily jumping on board the liberal mantra of the day, the newest "false argument" in a long line of false arguments they spew, and establishment types on both sides seem all too willing to run with.

We are the Tea Party Conservatives, and we are the solution for what ails this country, it is not about demographics.

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